Two scenarios to achieve GDP growth target of 6-6.5%


Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said that on the basis of data implemented in the first 6 months of 2021, the estimated GDP economic growth rate in the first 6 months of 2021 is 5.64% compared to the same period in 2020. basis for updating the 6-month growth plan in 2021, the economic growth scenario in 2021 according to the remaining quarters, specifically as follows:

Scenario 1, in case the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam is basically controlled in July 2021, there are no major outbreaks in industrial zones and key economic provinces and cities are not isolated. society, striving to achieve the growth target set by the National Assembly of 6.0%. In which, the third quarter increased by 6.2%; the fourth quarter increased by 6.5%.

Scenario 2, in case the COVID-19 epidemic in Vietnam is basically controlled in June 2021, there are no outbreaks in industrial zones and provinces and cities without social distancing, striving achieve the growth target according to Decree 01/NQ-CP of 6.5%. With scenario 2, the third quarter is expected to increase by 7%; the fourth quarter increased by 7.5%. “Thus, it can be said that the upcoming plan will be extremely difficult,” said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong.

Two scenarios to achieve GDP growth target of 6-6.5%.

In the Report on Socio-Economic Situation in the second quarter and the first 6 months of 2021 published by the General Statistics Office on the morning of June 29, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 was estimated to increase by 6.61. % over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of 0.39% in the second quarter of 2020 but lower than the growth rate of 6.73% in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019; in which the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 4.11%; the industry and construction sector increased by 10.28%; service sector increased by 4.30%. Regarding GDP use in the second quarter of 2021, final consumption increased by 3.18% over the same period last year; accumulated assets increased by 6.05%; exports of goods and services increased by 29.81%; imports of goods and services increased by 28.53%.

GDP in the first 6 months of 2021 increased by 5.64%, higher than the growth rate of 1.82% in the first 6 months of 2020 but lower than the growth rate of 7.05% and 6.77% of the same period in 2018 and 2019. The Covid-19 epidemic that broke out in a number of localities across the country from the end of April with complicated and unpredictable developments has posed many challenges and risks for our country in realizing the dual goal of “both prevention and control”. disease and economic developmentā€.

The growth results in the first 6 months show the drastic direction and management of the Government and the Prime Minister; the joint effort and consensus of the political system, the business community, the people of the country and the frontline forces against the epidemic to control the epidemic, carry out tasks and solutions for socio-economic development in the year. 2021. In the general growth rate of the whole economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increases by 3.82%, contributing 8.17%; the industry and construction sector increased by 8.36%, contributing 59.05%; the service sector increased by 3.96%, contributing 32.78%.

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