Forecast of economic growth gradually recovering in the last months of the year

Two outbreaks of the Covid-19 epidemic have reduced GDP growth in the first six months of 2021 from 6.22% as the target in the operating scenario to about 5.8%. The Ministry of Planning and Investment commented: The whole year growth target of 6.5% becomes extremely challenging when the economic growth prospect in the last months of the year still has many risk factors. The remaining two quarters of the year must achieve a growth rate of more than 7% to achieve the full-year growth target.

Assessing the impact of the fourth wave of the Covid-19 epidemic on the socio-economic situation, Dr. Can Van Luc and the research team of the Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) said that the impact will be very strong to the economy in many aspects such as: supply chain, consumption, import and export, employment, bad debt, budget revenue.

In the last months of the year, growth will recover again, the whole year growth is expected to reach 6.1% – 6.3%. “This is a lower growth rate than expected, because this epidemic has a direct impact on the production areas of Bac Giang and Bac Ninh. These two localities account for about 10% of industrial production and 15% of total export turnover. exports of the whole country”, analyzed by Dr. Can Van Luc.

The full year growth is expected to reach 6.1% – 6.3%. Illustration.

According to experts, the fourth outbreak of the disease is the most dangerous ever, requiring the Government’s executive response to be adapted soon because of the accumulated anti-epidemic experience. no longer suitable. The highlight in this peak of epidemic prevention is to change the state of epidemic prevention and control from defense to active attack, not to disrupt production and minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic life. socio-economic.

Dr. Nguyen Duc Kien, Head of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Group, said: The Government’s point of view is that each locality should base on the actual situation to have solutions to successfully implement the “dual goal”, after that study to assess the impact to replicate throughout the country. For example, in Bac Giang province, even in the peak days of the outbreak, there was no need to blockade the whole province.

Bac Giang’s lychee harvest fell at the right time of a strong outbreak, but this locality has proactively planned to respond by building safe lychee areas; vaccinate lychee growers and drive goods to the point of consumption; proposed the Government to direct ministries, branches and localities to create a “green channel” so that lychee can be quickly passed the Covid-19 epidemic control checkpoints when all procedures for epidemic prevention and control are completed… and open multiple consumption channels on e-commerce exchanges.

Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said that in the last six months of the year, the Government has steadfastly implemented the dual goals of fighting the epidemic while protecting people’s health and promoting socio-economic development; focus on maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy; close coordination between fiscal policy, monetary policy and other macro policies; closely monitor price movements to analyze, forecast and review growth scenarios, and promptly propose solutions to control inflation. The government will use all resources to have a vaccine soon and give it to the whole population free of charge in order to achieve herd immunity.

Vietnam effectively implements FTAs, promotes sustainable economic growth( – Vietnam is gaining more and more advantages from integration. Most obviously, through the effective negotiation, signing and implementation of FTAs, Vietnam has significantly improved access to export markets, created more jobs and promoted more sustainable economic growth. .

Mai Phuong


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